When it comes to share investing we hate September and October. It’s when most of the major sharemarket crashes happen.

July and August is when the northern hemisphere is on summer holidays and having a great time… a bit like our December/January.

But when the fund managers and stockbrokers get back to work, around now, reality starts to set in. Those dark financial clouds building over summer, and ignored, all of a sudden come on to the investment radar and markets become spooked.

We can’t help thinking this is going to be one of those years. What are those dark clouds, and why should we be worried?

When the last Global Financial Crisis hit, it began in the US bond markets where no one really understood what was happening. It’s complicated to follow and that’s how it snuck up on the world.

One of the key measures in these markets is 10 Year US Treasury Bonds which are seen as one of the safest and most liquid investments in the world.

When the outlook is bad, smart investors go to US Treasuries as a sort of safe haven. The more investors fleeing to safety the lower the yields (interest rate) because people are more interested in safety than a good return.

Two years ago when the financial crisis really hit a key indicator was that US 10 year Treasury bond yields were down to just over 2 per cent.

Well last week they sank to below 2.5 per cent, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year. It was on the back of an aweful 27 per cent drop in existing homes sales for July to historic lows.

Another dark cloud is the massive Government debt throughout Europe and the austerity programs which will be put in place to keep a number of countries afloat. Austerity programs slow economies, reduce company profits, increase unemployment and curb consumer spending.

Once the summer holiday euphoria is over for the people in these countries, the reality could mean an extremely harsh financial winter is approaching.

Then there’s Japan. Last week it was overtaken by China as the world’s second biggest economy behind the US.

After years in the economic doldrums it was thought Japan was on the mend. But the last quarter’s economic growth figures of an annualised 0.4 per cent was a shocker. The previous quarter’s annual growth was 4.4 per cent and most were expecting 2.5 per cent in this latest result.

In fact, economic growth figures are being revised down for most of the world’s major economies.

To us there are all the signs for a GFC 2 brewing.

Before we get accused of scare mongering, we have always pledged to tell it like it is. To sugar coat something can be misleading.

We’re not alone in these views but, to be fair, there are others who are a lot more positive.

The optimists point out there have only been 3 double dip recessions in the US since 1913… the last was in 1981. But recoveries seem to always hit a rough patch within 10 months which is marked by drops in factory output, consumer confidence and share prices.

Yes, we know it sounds like what’s happening now.

We had CNN’s London-based business guru Richard Quest on Sunrise recently for his views and he’s much more positive than we are.

He said yes, major economies are slowing down, because recovery is not an easy business. They’re slowing down but not crashing. Richard says there’s less than a 30 per cent chance of a double dip recession, and that US Federal Reserve bosses are keeping it under control.

Of course they’re struggling and in poor shape, but they are open and ready for policy changes whenever it becomes necessary.

So while it might feel like a quasi recession, it’s nothing more than a few tremors. No earthquake to follow.

He explained that the low yield on 10 Year US Treasuries is reflecting the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low for the ‘foreseeable future’.

It’s not a sign of a double dip, just of the struggle going on to get the economy back on track. Rather than being a simple ‘V’ shaped recession, or the dreaded ‘W’, it’ll be more like a ‘U’ shaped recession, where it spends a lot longer at the bottom before we start heading upwards again.

So there you have it. Don’t say we haven’t been balanced.

We admire Richard Quest and respect his views. He brings an objective global view.

While we’re comforted by his optimism, we’re not entirely convinced he’s right this time.